In its recent report (may 2020) the ECLAC organization focus its atention on the social impact of covid 19.So far, the priority has been the sanitary side of the pandemic as the key primary risk of the Covid 19 to deal with properly.But this is the short run impact of Covid -19, which may be positively solved as long as the pandemic is getting under control and some time into the near future a vaccine is ready to be implemented Howeever, the long run social consequences are still to have its full impact .-
The ECLAC report provide alternatives scenarios all of them leading to higher poverty and extreme poverty , inequality and unemployment levels. Thus, with the expected fall in global economic growth, and the projected reduction in 2020 regional GDP, at about 5,3%, and a fiscal policy on its limits to financing all these expenditures, the social situation does not look promising at all.
The areas most affected by the pandemic are labour income, employment,mental and physical health,nutrition ,access to basic services, education, intrafamily and woman abuse.
Some data are important to support the argument .Latin America as a whole will increase average poverty rate from 30,3% (2019) to 34,7% (2020,Middle range scenario,ECLAC Reporst). Besides average Inequality index measured by Gini Coefficient will increase in the range of 0,5% to 6,0%.
Unemployment will also rise with more than 11 million additional workers out of jobs.Labor market in Latin America are below standadrs with high level of informality(53,1% (2016)), especially among women (54,3%),(International labour Organization,2018),which lead to dual labor markets which means a mix of opposing realities given that in informal labor markets there is neither legal protection , nor contribution to the pension system.So, it reinforces the poverty trend and in times of pandemic make harder to focus the public help because those people are not legally registered as workers whose need are regularly complemented by government policies such as minimun wages, subsidies and other social services.-
Accordindg the ECLAC report, the social assistance has included cash tranfers USD 38,83 billions(0,7% of regional GDP in 2020),food provision, supply of basic services,social protection to both formal and informal workers ,tax reliefs and morgage payment adjustments,covering a wide spectrum from low to middle income levels. Furthermore it also make a call about the risk of loosing another decade ,this time due to the unexpected sanitary shock and its consequences. Taking into account a time span perspective , the report shows that the external debt problem in the eighties required 25 year (1980-2005) to get poverty back to its previous level,14 years to recover regional GDP ,and the latest financial crisis(2008) had a setback in poverty level equivalent to 13 years. The whole social- economic- political equilibrium and its stability prospect for democracy to be up to the expectations is a stake. Therefore, it seems that a comprehensive action is needed in a join effort arising from the private sector, government and international organizations to work together with a long run prespective .-
It would be a tragic outcome if society is able to get out from the sanitary pandemic, to fall into another social one.
