Friday, December 16, 2011
This year has been plenty of uncertainties concerning the global economy possibilities to overcome the spillover effect of the financial crisis of 2008.Policy makers, confronting tough choices about fiscal and monetary policies, and politicians thinking about the next election (whenever it is),rather than the next generation, made the whole year a mixing experience of mild recovering on the one hand ,but soft recession on the other hand .-
On the other side, emerging global partners are shifting the attention of global economy toward the pacific .Latin America is on the trend to increase its focus on the pacific, which undoubtedly will have an impact on both its economic growth prospect , and its strategic importance as the key supplier of necessary raw materials . Therefore, this focus toward the pacific will also have geostrategic effects, unclear to foresee completely up to know, but for sure, Latin America is increasingly positioning itself as a reliable alternative for global investment flows as this trend goes along .
Thus, there is currently a change in global power parameters as long as geography ,market size, knowledge , and GDP share at global level matters. This is not something new, but this year has made it all a fact .-
What can we expect for the year 2012?.
a.- Latin America ,might become a key player on the solution side of the global economy constraint. (4,1%, 4,4% of economic growth in 2011,and 4,3% , 4,8% expected for 2012, ). This expected outcome, is an incentive for more investment which means more production, less unemployment, more consumption, more imports (machinery ,equipment and goods ),from economies which needed it most . -
b.- Latin America moving forward with its integration process, but mainly based on the private sector lead .Business culture work faster than politics, as a tool for integration. This has been the case since the nineties, and it will continue in the 2012. This process will imply to have more pragmatic Governments, complementary with private sector to support the still low percentage of intraregional trade (20%). It is also expected , to go further on transforming the Latin America State .
c.- Global economy growth will stay at a soft pace, as long as Europe do not solve its debt constraint and inflationary pressures arises in some emerging economies. Latin America might also have the impact of such restriction , but not strong enough to reduces its prospect for growth , although depending on China economy keeping strong demand for raw materials.
d.- Europe is increasingly moving into the territory of economic recession, which might be longer than expected unless there are some additional definitions on the nature of its institutional framework, currently based only on prices stability, leaving aside financial stability and its impact on growth. There has been some progress , but market anxiety will push hard for more.
e.- The USA economy keeping its (slow)pace toward a full recovery , but depending for it ,upon a more dynamics global economy .-
Friday, December 02, 2011
Will the Euro survive?: EU at its critical hour
Most of analysts agree that the chances for the Euro to survive the current debt problem in the EU , goes along with Central banks focusing on financial stability as much as they do on price stability.-
The problem is that in most of the world economies ,Central Banks have made of price stability a trade mark based upon its importance for sustainable economic growth. But as the financial crisis of 2008 (and many other crisis as well) showed , it is hard to get economic growth ,when banks cannot keep the cash flow working.
There are a lot of reasons for Banks to be in a weak position, but probably the most complicated deals with confronting speculative forces. This is one of the reasons that the “lender of last resort” comes along as key partner to control what it might be a liquidity problem to become a solvency problem, because the fall of the financial system ,imply a longer and more difficult period of recovery.-
When such a lender of last resort it is not available, Banks must go on its own. In this scenario nobody trust nobody, and hoarding money becomes an alternative ,although it means a higher chance of credit crunch for productive purposes. Thus , at this stage it is the moment when the price stability focus , become a source of recession instead of growth.
This paradox is to say the least puzzling because it contradicts the main stream of macroeconomic policies, whether it is monetary or fiscal policy , which is to play rules concerning economic growth stability. Therefore, there are three simultaneous variables for central banks to take care of : Price stability, financial stability and economic growth stability. This is not an impossible triangle, but it assumes the availability of proper tools both legal and economics ones.-
The EU economic institutional framework, was not designed for situations like the current one .If that would have been the case, probably the Euro never would have come to live, because economic discipline was a necessary condition for the whole experience to be successful .However , some country members saw the monetary arrangement , as a ticket to wasteful spending anyway .Most of them thought that they were too big to let them fall, but a few if any, thought that at the same time , they could become too big to save without risking the fundamental of the Euro currency principles.
The EU is trapped within its own design. Any modification needs more time than it is available. Besides, without the lender of last resorts, the options are between two social cost : economic recession, or the euro going to the economic history book.-