Sunday, May 28, 2017

2008: its lasting consequences

While the financial crisis of 2008 is closer to be a close chapter , its both economics and political consequences are still in place and an open path for further development. The economics and financial consequences have made quite clear its implications: a.- Slower economic growth b.- More regulations for global Banks c.- Restrictions to a deeper globalization approach d.- Free trade in a transition to become Fair( better) trade e.- Central Banks focused on deflatonary risk All of these effects, have political implications.Some of them : a.- New risks testing the stability of the European Unión Project b.- The political dimensión of globalization, has become a constraint. Geography matter more than financial integration. c.- European Central Bank has become an unexpected power to deal with.- d.- Skepticism about the capabilites of European unión, to solve the current challenges arising from refugees flows.- e.- New threats to replace the focus from globalization on its own, to a more secure boundary for all what matters the most for it( Trade, data exchange, networks facilities, travel screening and the like) So, the world has become both more dangerous and fragile at the same time .The real issues are different global threats in the landscape, not just related to a global economic recession, but to the whole global stability. Just to mention the more urgent ones: Nuclear risk, terrorism, cyberspace war.- A sense of urgency on some of these issues , perhaps in all of them for the international community , have changed the political scenario and priorities for politicians and world leaders. Unfortunately, Latin America is not in the position to be a global political partner. Somehow it is also within the risk zone ,specially in those countries in which democracy is not longer dependent from the people will .Instead, it has become the rule of a few whose concerns are far away from the ones related to those voters who elected them. At the time that the economic consequences of the financial crisis of 2008 are closer to be overcome, with the USA economy growth on a steady track, the european unión on the path of recovery, and emerging economies, better than expected, there are pressing threats which requires coordinated solutions.-