tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-159274582024-03-07T01:05:24.898-08:00Economic BriefingThis page deals with economics and business issues,concerning Latin America, and the global economy.-ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comBlogger329125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-1738705183149581282020-10-11T14:05:00.001-07:002020-10-12T06:57:49.474-07:00Policy effectiveness and Covid-19 restrictionsThese days the Covid-19 pandemic is still within the risk zone (Higher than expected number of COVID -19 new cases).The so called second wave of new cases in most of european countries, is growing at an alarming rate.In the Americas the daily cases, indicates that there still a long way before getting the pandemic under control.More so,the projections of Covid-19 related deaths for the coming ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-48655203857278971142020-09-15T08:52:00.004-07:002020-09-17T13:33:49.366-07:00The Chilean economy at its hardest time (II)As its has been the case for all the world economies , chilean economy has been hardly hit since March 2020 because of Covid -19.But before that, there was also underway the effects of the worst social unrest in years which started out in october 2019.So within a six months period (October 2019 -March 2020), the chilean economcy had to cope with emergency policies twice.So, the requirement isewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-2216722813899174692020-07-14T10:01:00.000-07:002020-07-14T10:01:51.822-07:00The Chilean economy at its hardest time (I)The Chilean economic model implemented since the mid-seventies, is under the critical attention of those who have considered it a benchmark and; of those who have been its critics. It should be take into account that in those years (1975-1980), Chile and many Latin American economies were in the last phase of an import substitution model, which through tariffs and exchange controls nullified ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-84814761138429020312020-05-31T17:05:00.000-07:002020-05-31T17:05:30.566-07:00Social implications of Covid -19
In its recent report (may 2020) the ECLAC organization focus its atention on the social impact of covid 19.So far, the priority has been the sanitary side of the pandemic as the key primary risk of the Covid 19 to deal with properly.But this is the short run impact of Covid -19, which may be positively solved as long as the pandemic is getting under control and some time into the near future a ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-29936613736945868012020-04-30T15:41:00.000-07:002020-05-01T10:35:31.435-07:00The Post Globalization: unknown path
The Corona virus has made in four months what it last 30 years and two recessions (1997,2008) to build up as a global framework for trade, investment,production, supply chain, and jobs mobility. Besides,quite extraordinary is the fact that nobody expected the new rules of global links interaction to be written with the global economy in a sudden stop situation. Rather the issue was for ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-20397469348033696972020-03-29T09:17:00.000-07:002020-03-29T12:17:46.968-07:00What to expect next?
The COVID - 19 has made through the core of business activity and daily life of million of people . So, Uncertainty is the new status for the economy and for everything else in months ahead.On the other hand, prominent thinkers, philosophers, economists gives their thought about what it is happening and its implications, but without knowing for sure any chance of getting the Virus expansion ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-78725227202889178872020-03-17T06:55:00.001-07:002020-03-17T11:40:00.281-07:00The global economy sudden stop
The world is still under stress by the coronavirus outbrake, and so it is the global economy and its remainings.Hard choices for global leaders, but also for the economy policy makers.They both face a completely unexpected situation which for economist is out of any economics text books.In fact , economics as a science rose to become a core on new knowledge concerning society behavior(ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-53158683310595312472020-02-06T07:58:00.004-08:002020-02-27T07:52:34.027-08:00New threats for global economyThe current situation arising from the coronavirus risk of spreading out to the rest of world and its implications for global economic growth, is a signal of the kind of new threats which global economy must be prepare for. Most of economist and analists think that such a virus may affect growth on the one side through trade channels and tourism ,and on the other throughout restricting the ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-46426741544949053252020-01-03T11:11:00.002-08:002020-01-03T11:11:29.851-08:002010-2019: The decade of failed expectationsLatin America economices are well endowed to become a magnificient world player. It has a market of 640 million people (2016), and a combined GDP(PPP) of USD 7,5 trillion(2014).Its GDP per capita is USD 8335,00 a 54% below world average(2012) which measure the potential for further increases.So it started the past decade with positive expdectations,GDP growth was 5,9% in 2010,but since 2013 ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-26489241652415222172019-12-03T11:04:00.004-08:002019-12-03T11:10:35.665-08:00Fiscal Policy Rules (II)It has been argued that Free capital flows, exchange rate regime and autonomous independent monetary policy do not fit well along the economic cycle. In fact, those targets cannot be achieved simultaneously .Sooner or later,one of those variables has to be modified for keeping monetary policy effective enough such that the aggregate economic activity stay stable. This is the impossibility ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-86693040083322546932019-09-30T11:24:00.003-07:002019-09-30T11:26:20.974-07:00Fiscal Policy Rules (I)
Fiscal Policy in Latin America for most of the twenty century, was the first hand government tool-kit, for winning elections.So, the fiscal deficit arising from it, implied negative consequences for the economy, as long as it fostered conditions for disestabilization forces such as, volatile economic growth and lower credit worthiness which sooner or later, become also a threath to ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-61226117302035689672019-08-30T15:13:00.000-07:002019-08-30T15:13:36.736-07:00Latin American economies are staying below trend
As the 2019, get into the second half, it starts the performance evaluation about real economic growth, and the one expected at the beginning. Most of the GDP growth forecast had to be revisited downward . IMF expected 1,4% and now it is adjusting it toward 0,6%. ECLAC was not too much different from an initial estimation of 1, 3% for 2019 to an ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-38957257313496760472019-07-31T15:19:00.002-07:002019-07-31T15:19:57.553-07:00Latin America Banks: The drivers of growth
Ten years ago, Latin America Banks were well off the danger zone , while their world leaders counterparts were right on the middle of the financial Hurricane(2008).Most of the analisys were focused on the way to get through it all, but very few attention was even posibble to consider to look for explanation about Latin America Banking which seemed to be outperformance by any standard within ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-52330477231032073062019-07-03T16:35:00.001-07:002019-07-03T16:35:25.452-07:00European Central Bank: Its key role
The ECB started in 1998 following the Treaty of Amsterdam . The European Central Bank came out after the European Monetary Institute (EMI) which had been set at the second stage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), to handle transitional issues concerning the implementation of the Euro as a currency. The European Central Bank (ECB) is one of the seven institutions of the EU and the ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-36100362426809939182019-05-31T14:04:00.002-07:002019-05-31T14:05:18.942-07:00European Union: No neutral Elections
The European Union had last sunday (may the 26th), its electionary process which turns out to be out of the usual. Instead it has become the signal that although european voters are in a good mood about the current affairs, they expect a deeper focus on new challenges such climate change, inmigration and decentralization. The surprise cames along the right wing forces whose leaders in France,ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-52943892730876630802019-04-30T12:51:00.000-07:002019-04-30T12:57:51.582-07:00The economic side of corruption
Economic theory has not been shy about corruption. A social bad of our times, it has evolved towward a more comprehensive ways headed to improve its benefit . Like the second best theory, it has become the alternative path to get control of the sate. The first one is of course throughout free elections, but in this case those who are elected, are subject to the scrutiny by their voters. ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-16415488599078228632019-03-30T20:03:00.001-07:002019-03-30T20:03:25.560-07:00The Yield Curve: A note
These day (in fact last friday),there was some concern about the pattern of the short term yield curve,which contrary to the expected,was above that one which reflect the long term yield.This means short term returns of Financial instruments (Bonds) were higher in the short run, than in the long run.This is the usual case signalling a recession. -
What is the meaning of Yield curve ?
It means ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-7726732480469916802019-02-28T12:11:00.001-08:002019-03-04T11:56:36.848-08:002019:Latinamerica and their say
It is almost 30 year ago that Latin american economies started out (1990),a complex development process,following the external debt crisis of the eighties.It was complex because there was a turbulent past of dictatorships,corruption, poverty and state intervention, which turned out to be almost a dream to think about markets, private investment,economic growth and wealth.But the journey ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-62705251861768721092019-01-31T16:46:00.000-08:002019-01-31T16:46:08.806-08:00Venezuela at its hour 25thMost of western democracy works on the basis of few key principles, most of which deal with voters and its right to be citizen. This mean to have the chance of chosing alternative path to those which for whatever reason does not fill their expectation.Usually these expectation are related to their current economic well being and beyond their most pressing need.
The traditional standard to ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-78317987962138184872019-01-02T04:58:00.001-08:002019-01-02T04:58:40.031-08:00The EuroZone and the monetary normalization
Markets watchers are guessing about what comes next with the European Central Bank, given the path of monetary normalization in place by the Federal Reserve since 2015 , which creates an expected interest rate diferential between Europe and the USA markets in the range of 2,5-3% for 2019 .Traditional models (Mundelll Fleming approach), suggest that with flexible exchange rates, such ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-3246959373373360702018-11-30T12:06:00.005-08:002018-11-30T12:06:42.883-08:00The ocean as a global resource
While we are all worried about global warming, but the deterioration of the ocean polution has become a problem as well. Increasing debris in the ocean have both an economic and environmental impact.According the UN program for sustainable developmenet: "As far as the world’s coral reefs are concerned, about 20 per cent of them have been effectively destroyed and show no healthy prospects ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-41351176880073172962018-10-31T16:26:00.000-07:002018-10-31T16:26:32.960-07:00Brazil: Alternative path
It has been quite remarkable the way Brazil and its people is trying to overcome the deep crisis which it got involved in because of failure of their political leaders to avoid corruption.The trade off between state assistance pollcies to the poor,in exchange for a free ride with corruption did not work. The magnitude of the crisis was so strong, that any parameter of evaluation about ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-82744626758209862812018-09-30T14:55:00.000-07:002018-09-30T14:56:13.576-07:00Which are seed of the next economics recession?
Key economcis analists have warned about the risks of a new economic recession,somehow as a follow up of the one the wrold is remembering these days.Just a few day ago (septemeber,18th), a Global Outlook conference call organized by Roubini associatte team took place to analize the risk of the next global economics recession.Covering a variety sides of the economic perfomance of key ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-75283969671276515712018-08-31T13:06:00.004-07:002018-08-31T13:06:28.503-07:002008:Ten years later after the crisis
Ten years ago, the global economy was under stress, with few analists in the path of anticipating properly what it was a few week away(September 15,2018).The fall of Lehman Brothers, ignited the beginning of the worse economcic recession so far in this century. Beyond the events which followed that day , it is interesting to take a limited review about some factors which may give aewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15927458.post-29806482883159498222018-07-31T13:43:00.002-07:002018-07-31T13:43:42.271-07:00Symbolic economics
Since the mid eighties, it has been usual to follow both economic news and its trend no just exclusively accordnig to the data available, but also by the opinions and evaluations of economic analists who make their own intepretation of economic data, shaping this way both the markets expectations and the investors mood which at the end get as an unexpected variable into the ewulfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16145166547561007242noreply@blogger.com