The ocean as a global resource

While we are all worried about global warming, but the deterioration of the ocean polution has become a problem as well. Increasing debris in the ocean have both an economic and environmental impact.According the UN program for sustainable developmenet: "As far as the world’s coral reefs are concerned, about 20 per cent of them have been effectively destroyed and show no healthy prospects for recovery. About 24 percent of the remaining reefs, are under imminent risk of collapse through human pressures, and a further 26 per cent are under a longer term threat of collapse". (UN .Life below water).- The ocens have a significant role not only for biological kind of live, but also as the buffer for storms. o it is a priority to work for a better conservation plan to keep ocen in good health.-

Brazil: Alternative path

It has been quite remarkable the way Brazil and its people is trying to overcome the deep crisis which it got involved in because of failure of their political leaders to avoid corruption.The trade off between state assistance pollcies to the poor,in exchange for a free ride with corruption did not work. The magnitude of the crisis was so strong, that any parameter of evaluation about political framework was distorted.What may be considered normal in a normal country, such as to fight violence on the street with tough measures, became a kind of an extreme approach out of proportion given the magnitude of violence in key cities of Brazil . The same apply to the role of the state.It is so often to consider its the role both necessary and irreplaceable , that very few realize that it is not normal to have a huge state, and any apporach to reduce its size,seem an extreme point of view,missing the point that what it counts about the state ,is its ability to be a reliable service provider, instead of protector of undesirable practices. Brazil has made its choice, and the expectation is about to be again in the right track , the one which should not had left.- The discussion about how much markets , and how less state , it is a matter for Brazilinas to solve with their neew leaders.No question that as long as it get closer to what create economic growth, wealth and better employment, will allow to become the engine latin america needs to pursue the transtion from being a raw material provider, to a good quality services supplier. The size of its market means opportunities for new business ventures, its expected economic policies will give a support to economic integration and the engagement in better trade deals .- There are bets about failure or success in this new stage for Brazil.Nobody may foresee the future using a crystal ball, but one thing is for sure Brazilians want to be again on the path of becoming a reliable partner , instead of being a permanent promise.-

Which are seed of the next economics recession?

Key economcis analists have warned about the risks of a new economic recession,somehow as a follow up of the one the wrold is remembering these days.Just a few day ago (septemeber,18th), a Global Outlook conference call organized by Roubini associatte team took place to analize the risk of the next global economics recession.Covering a variety sides of the economic perfomance of key economies as well as those in Emerging Europe, Asia and Latin America, ,the main lines of thought, goes on to keep attention on the year 2020 .- The year 20020, at least in the USA economcy seems to be the turning point from higher to lower economic expansion mainlly assuming that the fiscal boost in the USA economy would be close to fully exhausted its effect, while the Fed would have its normalizing monetary policy totally in place.This means that in that year and unless potential output expand throuhgout supply side gains (higher productivity, innovation ,lower regulation and so forth)) there would not be a counterfactor to overcome the contractionary effect of higher interest rate.For this matter the European Central Bank, would also be on the same track of normalizing .So, theses effects would be the first signal to watch in that year.- Besides the basics, there are other isssues which should also be in the surveillance area .On this regards , most of the focus is on the expected effect of the currrent trade adjustment policies between USA and China, as long as the current trade conditions impose the heavy losses of the monopsony powwer of one oversized consumer (China), which means welfare lost for those which are its trade partner.The consensus seems to be that this adjustmenet will no escalate to become a policy with most of the economices imposing tariff at its discretion to one another . Moreover , trade adjustment do not have a huge share(25%) on the chance of recession. Other variables goes on the microeocnomics foundations of markets.That is the case for the perception variables: Credibility,Trust and expectation.- Credibility on the quality of the economic policy implemented, Trust about its positve expected aoutcome, and expectations about what comes next once its impact is fully in place to support steady economic growth. Whether these variables goes on the upside mood , the virtuous cricle of growth may be in place for a longer period of time even beyond 2020. It follows that on top of the list for risking a new recession, are economic policy mistakes whether it comes either from the Central Banks and its tightening approach(faster than what market expect), or over expansion of public expenditure and total debt both public and prvate, beyond long run fundamentals) . In the latest case ,it leads the econoomy to the complex scenario in which there will not be too much of policy tools to chose from. So ,after controllling the risk of policy mistake, it arises the problem of lacking policy menus in case the econonmy moves toward a contractonary pace.This is what make more relevant the supply side oriented policies - On the strenght side, it is worth to consider that Private banks are in a better shape than some years ago.Inflation at the global economoy level does not seem to be on the path of being a factor for a recession. Finally, new trade agreeement under the new rules may also be an impulse for econoomic growth .- So, it is both a good and necessary idea to think about the risk of a new recession. Whether it take place in two or more years from now it is a matter of usual business cycles which macroeconomics policies are trying try hard to solve.-

2008:Ten years later after the crisis

Ten years ago, the global economy was under stress, with few analists in the path of anticipating properly what it was a few week away(September 15,2018).The fall of Lehman Brothers, ignited the beginning of the worse economcic recession so far in this century. Beyond the events which followed that day , it is interesting to take a limited review about some factors which may give a clue about the origin of such extraordinary policy failure, because markets do not act either on its own or, outside the legal framework.But what may be worth to take a look into? a.- Even considering the 2008 a policy failure, this conclusion does not come straight.This is so, because financial activities work on the basis of trust,reciprocity, and beliefs.For such a behavior, it is not only a matter of policy, but also about the underlying variables which influence the perception of uncertainty, which most of the financial activities work under. b.- Whether it was not a policy failure, what was it?.An hipothesis is the so called "Implicit Guarantee", which is equivalent to a Central Banks in the shadow, as a lender of last resort. It is not real , but it may be ready to provide help to financial instituions when troubles about out of control uncertainty arises. Where this "Implicit Guarantee" comes from? .The "Implicit Guarantee" approach of economic and financial agents, arises from past experience, (What Central Banks did in similar past events), CEO Central Bankers preference about neutrality (Whether the policy approach is to allow market adjustment mostly by itself through expectations). This two variables,at that time, were on the side of boosting financial risk, than otherwise. Thus there was an " Implicit guarantee" and a preference for neutrality, which was equivalent to give a green light to higher level of financial risk. But none of them, dealt with economic policy by rather about perception. Markets operators and Banks, percieved that there was no limitation to push risk higher in investment porfolio.In fact , Banlks borrowed USD 30-40 of debt, for every dollar they had as Capital.- c.- Regulation seems to be a critical variable to boost irrational exhuberance. However, regulation comes in place after the perception about the way the systenm cover further risk.In fact, the marketys operator , ask themselves how far the risk may go given a certain regulation which become a constraint whether it is low or high . Sure, lower regulation allow to go further on risk level, but the safety net to do that come from the "Implicit guarantee".Regulation allocate the kind of risk which are allow to perform within normal conditions of uncertainty, but not necessarily to solve the share of assets exposure to what economic agent percieved as uncertainty .One investor may invest in an heavy regulated investment funds , but if the market conditions get worse for all investors,their losses are not a regulation failure. In the 2008 crisis, the failure was more on the quaiity of the collateral to back up the face value of financial derivatives assets,after the economy start to adjust to the higher interest rates. It follows that , eventually a delay in such policy change, or a better coordination with the financial sector, may have gotten a different outcome .Regulation, seem to come next to those policy decisions.- d.- Finally, the wealth losses in the household assets, for the private owner was in the range of USD 9,1 billion in the USA economy case, which is equivalent to a USD 35000 per familiy, almost 20% of the average cost for a new home at that time. The higher level of losses were on Wal street (USD 7,0 trillion bail out), and in the economy activity as a Whole (USD 12,8 trillion).This numbers suggest that the social cost of the 2008 crisis, were higher than private ones, even considering the fall out of benchmarking Banks at thast time.The explanation for this outcome, deals with the fact that private citizens has lower transaction cost than society as a whole, to organize a legal strategy of protection and defense for unexpected events. Unemployment , output losses , a zombie financial sector unable to boost economic activity , were all part of the huge social cost society could not protect from on its own, just like in any other economic crisis. This does not mean that it is desirable to induce economic agent to push risk beyond the fundamental of ecoonomic stability, but when it comes to a economcic fall down, the worse prepared are those who regularly face lower levels of uncertainty , such that the probability of getting by surprise is higher.-

Symbolic economics

Since the mid eighties, it has been usual to follow both economic news and its trend no just exclusively accordnig to the data available, but also by the opinions and evaluations of economic analists who make their own intepretation of economic data, shaping this way both the markets expectations and the investors mood which at the end get as an unexpected variable into the policy makers decision framework .So , what it comes to be at the core of any economic analysis is not necessarily the data itself, but either what his or her interpretation make of it.This is a source of power for all of those (analists , researchers and the like), who work within the scope of reaching public opinion about economics performance . It includes not only economic analists and their background, but also all those subjective subject related to the public percepcion, such as personal image, prestige, status,knowledge and culture attached to someone. All of these are symbols and its endowment have market value specially valuable when it comes to influence public perception.Thus, investors or for this matter ,public opinion will both listen and later follow what these people says upon the basis of their prestige, good image, knowledege, which are the envelope of the accuracy of their judgement.That is also the case of CEO of Central Banks. They talk, and market listen. The importance of these flow of analisis and expert opinions,is that it reduces transaction cost arising from uncertainty and information assymetry.Of course, this is the case when these analisis are precise and both market and policy makers really cares about the "opinion side" of economic performance.After all ,anyone may have its own ability to make their own decision instead of external advisers. It is well known in the case of economists, that when two of them try to solve a problem, it arise an aditional one. In other word,, two economists given their opinion abut the trend of any economcy,they may come to conclude either that it goes at different pace but the same direction , or even opposite direction whether they chose alternatives perspective (either investment or consumption)for the analisis. This does not means that economist are the less qualified to communicate what they understand better than others, but it is true that after 2008 many of them became under negative evaluation because they were unable to anticipate properly what was the underlying forces of that crisis. On july of 2008,some of them were certain that the economy was on the track of steady economic expansion. On the other side, just a few of them (two or maybe three), who correctly anticipated the crisis and in some cases were treated unfairly,did not get the attetion to their warnings. Some bankers, policy makers and researchers, wanted to believe what they thought it was worth to believe .The fact is that to cope with the effect of that crisis, the FED started what it was called the "Forward guidance policy" (2008-2017),which was the equivalent of the light in the darkness. So any analists opinion, depends both of the quality of her or his assesment, but they also crutially depend of investors and policy makers ready to listen what they are trying to communicate . However, in a world of uncertainty and complexity , with unreliable prediction models, expectations have a key role for decisions making , such that those analists who make thing easier to understand, have the advantage of being able to make the proper interpretation of what is the meaning of any economic variable performance. So, market will follow them.- Thus, the economy has two fields of performing, the effective arising from data, and the symbolic one arising from interpretation, and trend analisis. Both may be complementary to one another when the economy goes up, but either when it comes down or it is close to it, the situation become more difficult to evaluate because of the variety of factors taking place in such a scenario. So, Economists become like politicians , as Winston Churchill once said, they have to explain why things were in the opposite direction to the one they predicted. Both, the effective and the symbolic one, make what a successful economy look like. How come ?. Well it is not only of matter of being well, but also a matter of being percieved well, and even much better.- .-

Migration as a source of human capital

Perhaps one of the most conflicting issues of the global economy these days, based upon free flow of capital ,goods, services and labor, is the one related to migration. This is so, because as capital moves quickly to different places following the expectation of increasing profits, it requires both complementary services and labor skills to keep the economic return curve , as much as it is possible, on the rising side, otherwise capital will move to a new gains opportunity , leaving behind the adjustment cost of resources reallocation within sectors which loose capital , with those ones which gain capital flows. This mean that in terms of capital financial return in the destiny country, labor skills which matter the most, are the one above average. In other words , capital expected financial return, define the profile of labor migration needs,as much as those skills mean higher productivity. Of course, a different story is related to cost gains, but in this case it is capital which follow such a places.- So, any economy lacking sufficient domestic labor force skills, may import it from other countries.It is like importing either education or qualified human capital. This was the story of Brain migration in the sixties from underdevelopment countries to development ones.- However, Migration can be analyzed both from the demand(above), or the supply side. The supply side of migration depends upon expected wages gains, coupled with the expected probability of employment(Todaro ,1981). Both, the higher the expected wage, and the employment probability , the higher will be the qualified migrants flows from one place to another.In this case, Migration is also an Human capital investment, which increases the returns of education.In such scenario, the migrant market fit the requirement of capital increasing returns.However,there are in place two implicit assumtions : a.- From the productivity level that any competitive economy requires, the relevant migration flows are those endowed with high human capital levels, because even whether the probability of employment is low, such an important human capital endowment , allows their owners for higher flexibility, mobility and adaptation to different requirement arising in the labor search process.- b.- The only way human capital arising from migration, may be useful for productive purposes (both increasing return of capital and employment), is based on the clear definitions of its property right. This has two tier: b.1 Those propety rights, come from formal education and its certification granted to those who successfully get the finish line at whatever level.- b.2 Those property rights, are recognized by the legal system of both countries( the one from the origin, and the one of the destiny of any migrant), which means that any migrant, must follow the rules of the legal system. Thus, there is a formal markets of migrants, which like any markets may work well,adjusting its wage levels according to migrants flows. Given symmetric information, if expected wages are high because both , there is in the destiny country, strong economic growth and low unemployment level, it will increase the flow of legal migrants, which sooner than later will decrease the expectation wages and migrant flow wuill decline.To avoid such disturbing fluctuations, and its displacement consequences, Europe implemented a few years ago ,the "Guest worker program" which allowed Migrants to stay in the dstiny country for the period of time their labor contract allowed them to do so.- But, the problem starts with the fact that the demand and supply flows of migrant do not always match an equilibrium in which social(private) benefits and cost are equal, becasue there is simultaneously an informal markets. So, Migrant markets is a segmented one. with two categories:. a.- The first level has the best of high qualified migrant b.- The secondary level, has the lower qualified migrant which lacks of property rights,(not education certification), and do not have the incentive to get into the legal system, because it would valued it at zero .- This secondary market, is the one which deal with illegal migration, equivalent to importing (country of destiny)or, exporting poverty(country of origin ). At this point, arises negative externalities dealing with poor migrants and poverty exporting, such as human traficking, border services requirement(patrolling, cheking point and the likes), aditional shelter for those in the waiting list, judiciary courts to solve those issues concerning the rights of the migrants, better unfrastructure to cope with health, sanitary and foods demands. In this secondary market, social cost are higher than social benefits, while private cost(nothing left behind), are lower than expected private benefits(illegal jobs).So the outcome is that migrant flows are higher than what is socially needed.- What is the proper solution?.The economic analysis suggest that any informal markets do not add up to social welfare. Instead, it decreases social welfare of the country of destiny, and no welfare gains whatsoever, in the country of origin unless, there are laws which may deal this disequilibrium. The law solves what market forces, do not, just the same way as it happens with environment contamination , collusive behavior in oligopoly markets,public goods, and the likes.The aplication of the resources provided by the legal system, is a guarantee for the property right protection and the welfare levels, of the majority of migrants.- Economic analysis (Coase Theorme),also suggest that in some cases, there is a chance of political solutions based upon negotiations .But the Coase Theorem also make clear that such a solution, requires low transaction cost, and clear definitions of property right.However, none of theses condtions, apply to illegal migrants.- So there are currently hard times for the global economy, because its global markets (goods, services, capital and labor) no always work the way it should. It seems that it is needed an up dated in the global economy institutional framework, dealing with the way markets provide even better outcomes than the ones which are already known.-

Women´s Labor force participation

When it comes to consider women in the labor force , the outcome is clear. There is a widespread dispersion between countries with high and those with low women ´s labor participation force. It is high in the lowest and highest income countries alike , and it is low in those countries in the middle income levels. The reasons to explain this situation goes as far as cultural factors, educational levels, wage discrimination and lack of a proper legal status to protect women on the job,specially when they have families to care which led them to informal labor market,and weak labor conditions.- The labor force participation rate, is the proportion of the population age 15+ who is economically active The trend ,since 1980 ,has been an increase in the women´s labor force participation rate ,although at a different pace , getting in the range of 50-60% in countries like USA, Germany Canada ,UK. and Spain. Latin America and the Caribean is also in the range of 50%.- From the economic stand point, most women need relative higher wage rate to get into the labor force than men,because her marginal disutility of working ( to delay maternity for instance), is higher such that they need a better and higher compensation, but at the same time, their time span expectation of staying within the labor force, is shorter than men, which imply a downward pressure on their wage level over time which measn that their net wage trend leave them earning less than mens .It follows that for many women part time jobs , adaptable schedules or net working , fit quite well with their preferences, Of course the real issue should deal with their abilities and skills for jobs performance, but the empirical evidence do not seems to take these variables aside from the ones mentioned above.The case of Denmark is an example where women earn less because of having children no matter their age (Ortiz-Ospina & Tzvetkova, Working Women Key facts and trends in femmale labor force participation ,2017).- Beyond the causes , determinants and explanations, the change in female labor force participation have quite important side effect: a.-It foster the development of the services sector.- b.-It facilitates new alternatives for net working c.-It support adaptable labor schedules, which improve flexibility conditions on the labor force d.-In some specific sectors ( driving heavy machinery equipment in mining activities ) are more productive than men,measured by the period of time keeping the working operation of the equippoment, which is longer than the case of men.- e.- In other areas women have better comunication skills specially suitable in the for movil phone calls areas to promote commercial packs .- f.- Women CEO, make a difference when it comes to use intuiton, emotional connection(closeness) to drive a team toward its goals Thus, there are a lot of reasons to expect more women into the labor force in the years to come.More so, when some emprirical evidence (World Bank, 2018). indicates that there are productivity gains associated to women on the economic activities. Public programs designed to support women on maternity age, and firms policies to protect women on the job , are more than compensated by the gains in value added and productivity for the economy as a whole.-

Is Latin America turning to the right?

It has been the case that the latest Presidential election in Latin America, has concluded with new elected Governments which had a political platform based upon ideas like free market, freedom of enterprise, better state to cope with social disequilibriums,specially those related to inequality, poverty and discrimination.- The underlying foundation of these outcomes, deal with the fact that there is strong disapointment with the Government failure to provide what the new middle class expect,(good quality jobs, services, education and health ),and skepticism about its ability to make a turn around such as to be a partner for the expectations of the majority of citizens.Instead , the politcal spectrum has been involved in scandals of a variety of situations, the most devastating of them all, have been the corruption charges against those who had become leaders, to consolidate the social achievements.- What are the implications of this movement to the right ,and may it last? a.- First of all, it is important to make clear that the citizens are looking for different solutions to new problems.This means , there is no way that old solutions will work .So it is the time of change and transformation. Change because of shifting roles from Government to both firms , and the civil society empowered by social networks.Transformation because economic growth has some limitations to deal with.Strong institutions are the key to make economic development an achievable goal.Both better instituions and the proper incentives to economic growth, are the golden mix to follow through.- b.- The private firms has made a contribution throughout the Latin America economies, to validate the role of markets to provide jobs, commercial credit to make afordable more durable goods, and by extension better standard of leaving.Besides, the initiatives of integration has made clear the relevance of private investment when it comes to give opportunities of new jobs, and take advantage of markets expansion.There is not doubt that the consolidation of private firms as the real partner of progress and well being of latin american citizens, is also a key explanation of voters to prefer market solutions.- c.- Trust is an asset hard to get, but easy to lose. Unfortunately , there is not many institution to trust in Latin America , with the exeption of those linked to citizens´ s own interest ,such as some NGO, and Networks with the skills to be the echo of those issues the society care the most. It is a surpiring fact that the state and society has moved away from each other, because those whose role is to be the intermediaries (political organizations), also failured to be up to the job. In the last fifteen years or so,political organizations turned out to be on the state side,to protect its failures, instead of focusing on how to solve society expetations .They were part of a machine not to serve the citizens ´s interest, but to serve their owns. For this purpose, the state was captured by small groups strong enough to change the course from where it should belong and stay.- d.- From the above it follows that freedom it is not a slogan, but a real chance of living up to its possibilities and opportunities.It is a better chance than Government promises which make fool of those who believe them.The new middle class is keen to realize that to improving steadily its living standard , falses promises are not what they expect and deserve. More so, freedom has become a more realiable alternative than government to provide justice and social equilibriums.Those countries in Latin America based upon the value of freedom are better off than those which still believe in Government.- Finally. is it possible that this change will it last?.After all, there are still political elections under way on the landscape, which may be a set back for all theses arguments.There is no easy answer.Each political process has its own profile which make it hard to extrapolate mechanically to any political event, and even to all up coming elections. What matter the most, is the trend and its underlying forces, it may take more or less time for the majority of countries in Latin America to be on the line of shared prosperity,integrated to the global economy as a reliable partner, but the seed is already in place.From now on,It is more the responsibility of those leaders from the right to follow the best path to achieve those goal .-

Industrial revolution 4.0

Since 2010 the global economy, has been working steadily to implement more advanced stages of digitalization.The digital productive process started to be an issue which to give attention , in some business in Germany when they were looking ten years ahead and realized that internet would not be just an information -Knowledge device.The internet of thing (IOT), and the artificial intelligence as a powerful complement to manage information, were on the path to become key variables to support new approaches to production process , chain value creation , customer relation management and big data processing, all of which create a new environment for CEO decisions making process, global connectivity ,automatization ,and the ability to get deeper into costumer feelings (Biometrics analysis).- However, this revolution, the so called 4.0 one, begun more than 35 years ago when the japanese started to work with more advanced computer (intelligent computer) which set the first step for robotization and later to "human like- robots", which make the whole necessary scenario for the firm fully robotized to become a reality sooner than expected.- So, business Management is under a new challenge, the one which arise from the possibility that the whole productive, process may be done by intelligent machines able to learn by themselves, to make fast corrections and data evaluation.CEO will have to work harder in the data analysis phase of the productive chain, improving its qualification to take advantage of their different sources of capital , arising from networks, big data accumulation , and talented people, to cope with the faster adjustment demands aimed to more sophisticated consumers.The value creation will also be revisited as long as integration will include not only specific productive process of one firm , but also different but connected firms such Banks, insurance firms, different components in the auto industry and so on.- Latin America is not away from this revolution .There are some research which indicates that by 2021 , 40% of its GDP will be in a digital format, and 40% of those more important business , will have a complete technological platform.- The next question is how Government will handle this change?.How will it impact on its own nature?.Is it possible a digital government?, If it is so, what are the implications about a Government with limited human control?, or a Government which become just another part of digital business?.It seems that few traditional government services, will survive the digitalization era, such that those which may actually be done by internet(all kind of certificates, tax payment, and the like), and only the real new needs will be justified, among these (cyberspace security,and data protection ).Welfare level will depend more on the business ability to get higher productivity, than traditional government based on a service supply role.-

The global economy adjustment path

The global economy is on its way to get "normal".This means all prices become fully in charge of every markets.Interest rate like others prices (Wage,exchange rate, and goods) are increasingly reflecting the effect of the so far steady economic global economic expansion. There are risks along the way such as overheating, asset overprices and market volatility, as prices start to moving to its long term path. The economic cycle at a global scale is in motion. As economic growth get traction, it stress up labor market and wages, which add up to the firms cost, and so to its good prices. Thus the expected inflation increases and the Central Banks comes along to get in charge of the prices adjustment, to make it as soft as it is possible. This is the conventional approach. However, the global economcy and its broad and deep links both real and financial ones, make things a bit more complicated. a.- The missing variable :Productivity, may be higher than conventional statistical measures (out per man/ hour) are considering. Information and ideas flows, conectivity speed, faster data processing, plus knowledge sharing, and global innovation chains, make productivity higher than its limited quantitative measure. It also has a qualitative component.In other words , value become as an important part of productivity gains.- b.- It follow that wages may goes up, but as long as the whole productivity also goes up, inflation may be more stable than expected even whether agregate demand keep its upward trend. Alternativeky, inflation may take more time to get its targeted level (2%), and overheating in the short run may have a lower probability. c.-The financial side, is the other variable in the global economy expansion. Given its fundamental, asset prices may be higher than its real value, fostering private debts level to the higher risk zone, both in case of a sharp downward movement in agregate demand, and with the increasing probability of downward price correction, along the reinforced market anxiety related to it. Exchange rates take its share of the portfolio adjustment , some currency moving downward ,while others moving upward. Expectations may deteriorate and all of the sudden the global economy moves from expansion to a "stand by" mode, if not contraction, while the adjustment take place. It follows that interest rate has two transmission channels: both the real(consumption and investment levels), and the financial one(asset prices and portfolio allocation).- Current data are not conclusive about the global inflation trends.It is close to its target level (USA), and half its target (Euro zone), but it is still not a fact that the target is about to be surpassed, given that december ,january and february ,are usual months with higher demand for energy intensive goods and services, the ones with more prices increases in december 2017. So what may be expected?.Interest rate will be the latest prices to be adjusted along this year, following a path suitable to the new developments on the real side, (higher productivity than the one which is measured),and the deeper global financial links which make the financial transmission channels to work faster.