New threats for global economy

The current situation arising from the coronavirus risk of spreading out to the rest of world and its implications for global economic growth, is a signal of the kind of new threats which global economy must be prepare for. Most of economist and analists think that such a virus may affect growth on the one side through trade channels and tourism ,and on the other throughout restricting the supply chain value because of preventive actions leading to stop productive process, as a practical alternative to reduce the chance of furhter cases of corona virus , keeping workers away from their job places especially in China.- This virus is 80% similar to the SARS which arose in 2003. At that time there was also concern about its impact on global economy, but it was not such as to get an high alert status as it seems to be the case this time. The question now is How fragile is the global economy to deal with this threats? and others such as Cuyber attacks, natural disasters and the likes (effects of climate changes)? For a long time it was a paradigm for economics that nature was outside its boundaries.Nature did not matter for economic growth.Instead all what it was a matter of concern dealt with macroeconomic policies and its proper design.Thus either fiscal expansionary policy or Monetary expansionary policy, were the main focus of threats to keep economic growth within a stable path.That does not seems to be the case anymore. Low inflation is a characteristic of global economy, as it may be so for low unemployment as well due to better opportunities arising from deregulation and its implications of higher mobility of jobs opportunities. Actually, Macroeconomic setting look more stable than before to be considered a source of risk for global economic growth.The risks are on the microeconomic side which deals with the way people and economic agents shape its expectations . There is no method to make sure that expectations will always be positive.People behavior is more complex than economic modelling may expect, because some key features of human behavior are unexpected, such as fear,distrust,anger.So, expectations do not follows a clear well anticipated path, which leads to make that uncertainty arises not necessarily because of wrong policy design, but because of people limitations to deal with all information available to shape expectations faster and properly as economic fundamentals demand. So, the Corona virus and other similar cases in the future, are not usually included into the economic growth policy models, which lacks the abilty to design the proper reaction , hurting the expectations about the final outcome, before getting back the traction of economic growth. Thus, error terms in any modeling make them less accurate .So, it become more relevant to take into account a wider variety of situations and variables which may be key for shaping expectations properly along with economic growth perspectives. Any economic growth forecast should have a probability scenario dealing with expected risk arising from human behavior considering either wrong policy design or, wrong policy reaction.In this case, any unexpected event is previuosly considered into the process of shaping economic agent expectations.Therefore, this would provide a better control of risks and uncertainties along the growth path.