Sunday, March 29, 2020

What to expect next?

The COVID - 19 has made through the core of business activity and daily life of million of people . So, Uncertainty is the new status for the economy and for everything else in months ahead.On the other hand, prominent thinkers, philosophers, economists gives their thought about what it is happening and its implications, but without knowing for sure any chance of getting the Virus expansion trend in a downward path.That means all of them are driven by hope that all of this episode will melt away sooner. Hope is the one and only feeling who may keep alive people expectations about any improvement soon . However, according with available data coming from consumer sentiments, business leader,economists,analists,journalist and International Orgnization like the IMF, all of them anticipate a tough scenario for the global economy in month ahead. Even with fiscal aid packages assuming the economy will restart again soon ,it does not seems to be clear that the health care system is strong enough in each country to overcome the situation and let that expected economic outcome happen, before it collapse.In such a case the restart would be later stressing the economy system to its limits. So will it be necessary another aid fiscal package?.In emerging economies there is not such a possibility given that most of these economies are with limited fiscal policy options,given its limitations to expand debt levels further. So, The current situation goes on within extremes: The risk of a massive collapse of the health care system,no matter the effort to tuckle the threat to avoid so, coupled with the high risk of a massive collapse of the fundamentals of the economy, no matter the poliicy responde so far. .The outcome may be worse than a greater depression.There is an ethical dilemma which must be solve by political leaders However, the question What to expect next, goes beyond the crisis. It is hard to believe that the expected new normal situation will be the way it used to be before COVID 19.The effects of this pandemic will last for years to come reaching out the economic system and its fundaments(for instance more sate in the economy ), as well as how people do their daily life obligations( better sanitary condtions at works, home , public places,and transportation).Besides, the tracking system on any individual to get control of any future cases,will change and modify the boundaries of privacy and freedom. It look like it is not just the econoomy which will have severe consequences,increasing the risk of proteccionism further , but also how democracy works in the future and how it improves its proximity with their citizens needs.