Sunday, November 29, 2015
2015 A critical Balance
It is usual to make balances when the end of the year is coming closer. 2015 is not different, expect for the fact that it means half of the second decade of this XXI century.So it represents what make trends for the remaining of the decade. 2015 will be remenbered as the year of anguish and horror, from the refugees crisis, the terror threath in any place in the world, the painful consequences of those more vulnerable to Climate change, and the narrower boundaries to have a stable peace. It looks like war it is just around the corner. In fact, the world has begun a war against who do not consider other values than those they believe in, such as to get to the extreme to make them possible. Nobody knows what this war will look like in 2020, but it is a fact that the world is less safer than it was at the begining of this century.- The global economy, is still strugling to improve its performance.What it gains some where (USA and Europe), it lose it elsewhere (Japan, China).It was expected that the USA economy, would be the first to be on the track of economic growth, after the financial crisis of 2008.However, It was no expected the rise and fall ,so to speak of emerging economies, from being the engine leading the recovery, to become the last wagon.A lot of question arise about whether these economies are really out of the growth path either as a permanent situation, or a transitory one.I do believe it is a transitory stage.The traction of global growth will soon work to get on board, those economy which still keep its core fundamentals of good economic policies. In Latin America, there are not too many economies whithin the fundamentals: Inflation has been rising, output growth has been declining, fiscal deficit has been on the rise and the majority of these economies face the problem of lower prices for its main exporting products.However, some of these economies, specially those focused on the pacific grim seem to be in a better shape, to overcome what some analist have called the "Perfect storm".- Voters in Latin America are exhausted with the proposal which they have to decide. When the economies goes up it is easier to settle down, what it fits with every one expectations, but when the economy is on the down side of the growth path, the options are narrower, and the decision for the voter become thougher and the chance of mistakes higher.Perhaps an example of that in 2015, was Brazil, and on the contrary side was Argentina.It is not easy for voters to make the right decisions , it requires not only good information, but also good faith of the candidates they vote for to tell them what it closer to reality instead of illusions.- The expectations at the year end, and the regional-global mood , are not optimistic on every field of public affairs.Climate change, global and regional economy, world peace and stability , all looks like we end this year with an huge cloud above us, which only coordinated leaderships can overcome.