Friday, November 01, 2013

Better news for the Euro Zone and the EU

Recent reports on unemployment, economic sentiment, and progress in the Spain economy, helped to improve the mood of investors. The world economic projections show that the EU is moving out of the recessionary territory, although still far away from normality. Unemployment dropped in Germany to 6,5% in October, although a more detailed analysis, reflect the impact of migration from other weaker economies. Adjusted by seasonal effect, unemployed in Germany increased to 2.97 million people. On the other side, the economic sentiment according to IFO(Institute for economic research) fell slightly from 107,7 in September , to 107.3 in October which shows some doubts concerning the pace of economic growth for the near future. However, for the European Union as a whole, the economic sentiment of investors and consumers improved by 1,1point to 101,8 points; with stronger performance in industry than services sectors. Industry has still idle capacity to recover, which support the expectations of higher production levels in months to come. In fact for the Euro Zone, it is expected to have 0,5% of economic growth new year. Germany has the growth engine for their partner in the EU zone, and consumer moods to spend more ,seem to suggest better results for those which export to that country. Spain has the first indicators of Improving its economic situation .It has been declared technically out of the economic recession, which started three years ago. Unemployment and economic growth slight advances are signals for moderate optimism looking into 2014 to get out of the recession definitively. Tradable goods (exporters) are on the lead to sustain the recovery. Layoffs rates has slowed by 25- 30000 a month, indicating that unemployment might have been reached its bottom (www.roubini.monitor). Italy has made the fiscal adjustment in terms of structural budget, and it is on track for reducing the debt to GDP ratio required under the Euro+/ Six pack accord ,(3% each year from 2015). No matter the gains made so far , these seems to be more related with the relaxing of some austerity criteria, and the seasonal effect of summer ,than to structural changes to sustain steady economic growth. Theses structural changes will take some years to come into effect, and so it will to recover the path of meaningful growth.