Saturday, December 13, 2008

Latin America and global warming (I)

A recent World Bank report concerning global warming, assumes that Latin America countries have a very good chance to take the lead among the third world , to pursue a strong strategy to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions, actually 24% above world average .Even so, between 2005 and 2030, the expected carbon dioxide emission by Latin American countries, will be up by 33% above world average as well. What are the implications of these results? :
a.- This percentages , are a warning about the importance of working on a coordinated strategy to change the dependence from traditional against environment conservation, sources of energy . With such a huge reserve of natural resources, available for non traditional source of energy (gas, solar and wind energy ), Latin America has the key raw materials ,to move forward regarding those friendly environment, alternatives strategies.-

b.- It is worrisome that with huge world forest reserves (Brazil, Amazon),which consumes and therefore reduces dioxide of carbon emissions ,the pace of emission , is higher than the pace of reduction of those emissions. It follows that deforestation is taking place, at an unsustainable rate. Thus, the first component of such strategy ,might be to take control of the deforestation .-

c.- Solar and wind produced energies, should be massively implemented at local communities at first, to spread it out at larger cities later, wherever it is technically feasible . Tax incentives for producers on agricultural activities to works with these source of energy , and residents on urban areas ,and local development subsided programs ,based on the implementation of these source of energy ,should also be considered promptly .-

d.- A recent paper (Climate change and economic growth: Evidence form the last half a century ,NBER WP 14132,june 2008 by M. Dell ,B Jones and B. Olken),suggest three important conclusions:
Higher temperatures reduce economic growth in poor countries ,but it has little effect on rich ones.-
Higher temperatures appear to reduces growth rates in poor countries, rather than just the level output.
Higher temperatures have wide range effects in poor countries, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, investment and increasing political instability.
e.- Considering the conclusions mentioned above, the right strategy for Latin America countries, is no longer to wait for richer countries to take the lead on solutions about climate change, on the assumption that they have a higher share of problem to blame them about, because they will have less affected by it ,once it becomes critical.-

f.- Every Latin American citizen should also be part of a new friendly environment culture, just like Europeans have done for quite a while. Educational programs concerning the importance of protecting our own environment ,instead of waiting for other to protect theirs , will add up a better outcome in terms of controlling all kind of threats risky enough for the environment conservation .-